Overcoming Overconfidence in Decision Making

Indecision, due to lack of confidence, can squander our opportunities.  However, the opposite, overconfidence, can be equally deadly.  No one knows how complex decisions will turn out, and it is critical that we remember that.

In your predictions of the future; remind yourself that the future is not a knowable / exact point, but rather a series of possible scenarios.

What could we do to aid in our decision making:

• In your mind, move to a time when your decision (the one that you are so confident is right) has failed.  Ask yourself: what went wrong?  How would I handle it?  How could I fix it and ensure that it will never come to pass?   
• In your mind, move to a time where your success is even greater than you are planning.  Ask yourself:  How would I handle it?  How could you be prepared for that future?
• Despite your confidence, set a tripwire ahead of time; When will we call this experiment or initiative a failure?  When will I reassess?

Use these techniques to ensure that you make solid decisions without the scourge of overconfidence.

Just my opinion.  What do you think?  Let me know in the comments.

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